According to a report compiled using satellite images by the China Aerospace Studies Institute, it has been revealed that the 41st Aviation Brigade of Wuyishan, belonging to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), is transitioning to the incorporation of J-20 stealth fighters in several of its combat squadrons. The images accompanying the document, obtained by the University of Air Force Studies in the United States at the end of November 2023, show six J-20 fighter fuselages on the platform at Wuyishan Air Base, located in Fujian province, southeast China.
The PLAAF had previously openly disclosed the distribution of different units of J-20 fighters across various Theater Commands of the People’s Liberation Army. However, the Institute notes that this information does not fully justify the current status or availability of the aircraft at various air bases in terms of numbers and aircraft in service. For example, the report highlights a similar transition movement in the 97th Aviation Brigade of the Western Theater Command, based in Dazu, focusing on the modernization of multiple units.
The analysis derived from the report suggests that at the time of capturing the satellite images, it is probable that at least the first flight group of the unit was close to completing its transition to the J-20. It also emphasizes that this transition likely took place in approximately four months.
In the same vein, and at the mentioned pace, it is possible that the third and final flight group will complete its transition in the months of July or August of the current year. With this hypothesis, the current inventory of J-20s in the PLAAF could range between 160 and 200 units in different states of readiness and availability, including all combat aviation brigades known to operate these aircraft.
Finally, the analysis adds that despite the rapid expansion of combat units operating the J-20 stealth fighter, the United States Armed Forces still maintain a numerical advantage over the PLA in terms of fifth-generation aircraft. According to the estimated rate of aircraft introduction into the PLAAF every four months, and the ability to have at least two aviation brigades transitioning simultaneously, it would take the Chinese Air Force between three and a half to four and a half years to reach the current total inventory of 630 fifth-generation aircraft operated by the United States Air Force (USAF) worldwide in 2024, including the F-22 Raptor and various versions of the F-35 in its A, B, and C variants.
Despite the PLAAF appearing capable of introducing between 48 and 60 J-20s per year, even with the highest production rates, the report suggests that it would still take them more than 47 years to introduce more J-20s than the current F-35s that the USAF plans to acquire in 2024 (to which the orders from the US Navy and Marine Corps must also be added). Additionally, the production and acquisition of all variants of the F-35 by the US Armed Forces surpass the capacity of the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group to produce the J-20 and the capacity of the PLAAF to incorporate it into its aviation brigades.
*Photographs used for illustrative purposes.
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