The U.S. Department of Defense announced this week that it will proceed with the development of the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile, despite a critical breach of the Nunn-McCurdy law reported earlier this year in January. This occurred as the Sentinel program showed unit acquisition costs exceeding a 25% variation from the budget stipulated by law, necessitating investigation, decision, and subsequent justification before the U.S. Congress by the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment for it to proceed.
According to the official publication from the Department of Defense, Under Secretary William A. LaPlante led an investigation which led to the decision yesterday, July 8th, to resume the program based on legal arguments. Dr. LaPlante cited that the Sentinel program is crucial for U.S. national security, there are no viable alternatives for the capabilities it should provide, and the new costs remain reasonable given reductions in less critical programs.
However, this decision does not mean the project will proceed as before; approval for Sentinel’s “Milestone B,” entering the engineering and manufacturing development phase, has been rescinded. Accordingly, the U.S. Air Force must present a new plan ensuring project continuity and addressing all issues contributing to the significant cost increases. Despite intentions to maintain the original program timeline, these delays are expected to push back completion by several years, impacting the 2022 Nuclear Triad modernization plans.
In terms of figures, the Director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) stated that with modifications, the Sentinel program could see an 81% cost increase compared to the approval at “Milestone B,” equating to nearly $141 billion more than planned in September 2020. The primary reasons for this cost escalation appear to stem from the necessary conversion of facilities housing and deploying future Sentinel missiles, currently equipped for Minuteman III missiles.
In remarks by Under Secretary LaPlante, he emphasized, “We are fully aware of the costs, but we are also aware of the risks of not modernizing our nuclear forces and addressing the very real threats we face […] The nuclear triad is the cornerstone of our national defense, and as our competitors modernize their own nuclear forces, the urgency to mitigate that threat is reflected in our Nuclear Posture Review.”
Meanwhile, Air Force Under Secretary Melissa Dalton underscored the importance of sustaining the program to prevent gaps in U.S. nuclear capabilities during the transition from current ballistic missiles: “The land-based component of the Nuclear Triad is a critical component of our nuclear enterprise, underpinning our national security […] The Air Force is committed to restructuring the Sentinel program to address the findings of this review and modernize our intercontinental ballistic missile force to ensure effectiveness against future threats, while ensuring no capability gaps during the transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel.”
*Images used for illustrative purposes
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