A recent intelligence report published by the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence states that the Russian Armed Forces have suffered more than 70,000 casualties in the last two months of combat in Ukraine. This figure, covering the months of May and June, includes both wounded and fallen personnel on the Ukrainian battlefields.
The Intelligence Update also mentions that due to combat actions in May and June, the monthly average of killed and wounded jumped to 1,262 and 1,163, respectively. This increase is attributed to the new campaign the Russian Armed Forces are conducting on the Kharkiv front, an offensive aimed at increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses but which has come at a high cost in human and material resources.
The report issued by the UK’s defence ministry details that the ability to exploit some of the tactical successes achieved by the Russian forces was limited by the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, coupled with the lack of training among the invading troops. Although mass infantry attacks have allowed advances at various points on the Kharkiv front, the casualties have been considerable, as evidenced in recent months by hundreds of videos and images disseminated through the psychological warfare campaign successfully implemented by Ukraine.
It is worth noting that the casualties suffered by the Ukrainian Armed Forces are kept under strict confidentiality by allied nations. However, analysts agree that Ukraine has also suffered significant losses due to a lower availability of human and material resources, compelled to attend to several fronts simultaneously. The peak was experienced with the artillery ammunition shortage, a situation that has been reversed in recent weeks thanks to the realization of part of the assistance pledged by allied countries.
British intelligence concludes that the Russian casualty rate will remain the same or increase in the coming months given Moscow’s intention to maintain pressure on various fronts with the aim of destroying and continuing to wear down local defenses. Despite the considerable losses mentioned, and a progression measured in hundreds and just tens of meters, this tactic has shown positive results for Russia.
With the initiative in Russian hands, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been forced to manage their limited resources to avoid being overwhelmed. Although the local situation is not critical, the failure of the counter-offensive (with the loss of valuable personnel and material), combined with disadvantages in several aspects (air and ground fire support, recruitment capacity, etc.), has imposed considerable limitations when considering a new counter-offensive in the medium term.
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