The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently warned Japan that a possible delivery of PAC-3 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine would have consequences. Moscow’s announcement comes after Tokyo and Washington formalized an agreement for the Japanese defense industry to join the effort to produce AMRAAM air-to-air missiles and PAC-3 interceptors for the MIM-104 Patriot anti-aircraft system.
Russian Foreign Ministry deputy spokesman, Andrey Nastasyin, outlined Moscow’s position on the new agreement between the U.S. and Japan, noting that the missiles produced in Japanese facilities could end up equipping the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the medium term. Nastasyin warned that Russia would consider it a hostile act.
The Russian spokesman added that Russia reserves the right to implement stronger measures, even in the context of its bilateral relations with Japan. Nastasyin did not provide further details, leaving room for various speculations. It is worth noting that Moscow has extensive experience operating directly or indirectly against Western military efforts, potentially opening a new front in Japan.
During the recent 2+2 meeting between the U.S. and Japan, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III stated, “… we are facing this moment working together more closely than ever. Today we will discuss historic efforts to modernize U.S. and Japanese command and control, as directed by the President and the Prime Minister during their April summit… This will include modernizing U.S. Forces in Japan and will be one of the most significant advances in the history of our alliance…”
Regarding future cooperation between the two countries, Austin III noted, “… we will strengthen industrial cooperation in defense, including missile co-production, and increase our bilateral presence in the southwestern islands. These efforts will enhance our ability to deter and manage coercive and destabilizing behavior…”
Japan’s contribution to the effort to increase the production of AMRAAM missiles and PAC-3 interceptors will be carried out by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which already has experience with Lockheed Martin in manufacturing missiles for the MIM-104 Patriot system. In the case of the air-to-air missile, new cooperation with Raytheon will begin.
Both AMRAAM and PAC-3 have seen growing demand in recent years, particularly due to the conflict in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have received NASAMS and Patriot anti-aircraft systems, which have demonstrated their capabilities against constant attacks from Russian cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. However, the cost of this deployment has been reductions in AMRAAM and Patriot missile stocks for several of Kyiv’s allies.
The demand also stems from increased orders from several countries, aiming to replenish and expand their inventories. The incorporation of fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II fighters has also elevated the requirement for the most modern variants of AMRAAM missiles. A similar process is occurring with PAC-3, which are being incorporated by users looking to upgrade the capabilities of their Patriot systems.
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Russia initially said there would be consequences for simply providing aid to Ukraine. Then there would be consequences for any military aid. Then consequences for ATGM. Then consequences for providing intelligence. Then consequences for HIMARS. Then consequences for tanks. Then consequences for Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Then consequences for long range missiles. Then consequences for F-16….
Russia always threatens consequences but doesn’t dare deliver those consequences. They are losing so much just with a poorly armed Ukraine. Russia only attacks weak nations, and will once again do nothing to Japan.