According to a recent report from various experts in the field, the U.S. is “ill prepared” to handle a potential nuclear escalation with China in the Indo-Pacific region. The research, funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency of the Pentagon, was conducted by specialists Andrew Metrick, Philip Sheers, and Stacie Pettyjohn from the Center for a New American Security.
“Currently, the United States is poorly equipped in its concepts and capabilities to manage escalation risks in the emerging Indo-Pacific era. Relying on submarines and dual-capable fighters and bombers for signaling and employment, the U.S. might face issues related to platform vulnerability, signaling visibility, and conventional warfare,” the experts stated.
The report asserts that both in the current security environment and in a potential conflict, managing China’s use of non-strategic nuclear weapons would be difficult for the U.S., which could find such use “appealing to undertake” in a conflict. The specialists believe that for deterrence to be effective, “one must be willing and able to use non-strategic nuclear weapons in the theater of operations to show the adversary that one is playing for high stakes, to demonstrate credibility.”
A Complex Context
It is worth noting that tensions in the region have been escalating, especially after China suspended its talks with the United States. In recent months, there were indications of bilateral dialogue, but last month Beijing announced it was suspending nuclear talks with the U.S. due to arms sales to Taiwan.
In line with this, while China threatens to take Taiwan by force if necessary, its nuclear arsenal continues to grow. This not only exacerbates existing tensions but also involves one of China’s major allies and neighbors, North Korea, which possesses its own nuclear weapons in this complex strategic landscape.
And although the U.S. has taken significant measures throughout 2024 to counter China’s threat in the Indo-Pacific, the American giant must do something “incredibly visible” to maintain deterrence in the region. For experts, effectively deploying nuclear assets is crucial, along with rotating its F-16 fighters in Japan and positioning its nuclear submarines for multilateral maneuvers.
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