In what appears to be the Russian response to the recent Ukrainian attack on its territory using U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missiles, it has been reported that Moscow decided to deploy one of its RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missiles in combat against the city of Dnipro, a missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. In this way, the war, which has already lasted for 33 months, takes a new step toward escalating the conflict, marking the first time the Russian Armed Forces have used this type of weapon against a Ukrainian city.
Although its launch is yet to be confirmed, President Volodymyr Zelensky himself has stated that an ongoing investigation seems to suggest its use. In his own words: “Today, a new Russian missile has appeared. All the characteristics, speed, and altitude are those of an intercontinental ballistic missile. An expert investigation is currently underway.”
In further details, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that the missile was likely launched from the Russian region of Astrakhan, located over 700 kilometers away from Dnipro, which is situated to the north of the already well-known city of Zaporizhzhia. In their report, they did not specify the type of warhead the launched missile carried, although it is ruled out that it was a nuclear warhead. When questioned by journalists, Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov, with an ironic tone, refused to provide further comments, stating that these inquiries should be directed to the Ukrainian Army.
If this missile was indeed an RS-26 Rubezh, we would be facing a system classified as an ICBM under a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia. However, it might more accurately be considered an IRBM (Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile) because, if equipped with heavy warheads, it would have a range of only 5,500 kilometers. It is worth recalling that this missile was successfully tested for the first time in 2012, with an estimated length of 12 meters and a weight of 36 tons, 800 of which could be the weight of the warhead.
Regarding the impact of the missile’s use, the governor of the affected region (Serhiy Lysak) stated that it damaged industrial facilities, causing fires in the surrounding areas and two injuries. The consequences could have been worse, considering that a hypersonic Kinzhal missile and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles were also reported to have been launched; however, in this case, six of them were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense.
For now, given the relatively limited impact of its use, the potential deployment of an RS-26 Rubezh should be understood as a deterrence maneuver by Moscow to prevent the future use of ballistic missiles against its territory. European military sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters this: “The launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile can be seen as a threatening gesture, possibly in response to the lifting of restrictions on ATACMS and Storm Shadow. It is a means of deterrence.” This comes shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin expanded the scope for the use of nuclear weapons.
Finally, it is worth noting that in addition to the aforementioned ATACMS missile attacks, Ukrainian troops reportedly used British Storm Shadow missiles yesterday to carry out attacks on Russian territory. While the Russian Ministry of Defense did not confirm the number of missiles launched or the region where the impact was registered, it did claim to have successfully intercepted two of them. Russian war correspondents expanded on Telegram that these missiles were aimed at the Kursk border region. Just like their U.S. counterparts, the British government had recently authorized Kyiv to begin launching attacks on Russian territory using the equipment transferred to them, one of the Kremlin’s main red lines.
Images used for illustrative purposes
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