Today, the Strategic Missile Forces of the Russian Federation carried out an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro using their intercontinental ballistic missiles. Although initial reports indicated the use of the RS-26 Rubezh ballistic missile, both the U.S. government and Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the attack was carried out with a new experimental system called Oreshnik.
Following the incident, which targeted factory facilities located in Dnipro, President Vladimir Putin informed the Russian people and the world that the attack had been conducted using a new ballistic missile named Oreshnik. This, he stated, was a response to prior attacks involving U.S.-made ATACMS missiles and British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles against Russian territory.
“In response to the use of U.S. and British weaponry on November 21 of this year, the Russian armed forces carried out a combined attack on one of Ukraine’s defense industrial complex facilities,” President Putin declared in a televised speech. “This included the combat test of one of Russia’s latest medium-range missile systems. In this case, a ballistic missile equipped with non-nuclear hypersonic technology, named Oreshnik by our missile forces.”
He also stated that the new Oreshnik missile (“hazelnut” in Russian, following the tradition of naming ballistic missiles after trees) reaches hypersonic speeds of Mach 10, emphasizing that no current Western defense system is capable of intercepting it.
Later, during a Pentagon press briefing, Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh confirmed that the Strategic Missile Forces’ attack involved a new type of experimental intercontinental ballistic missile, reportedly based on the RS-26 Rubezh. Singh added that the launch was communicated to the U.S. government through Nuclear Risk Reduction channels.
Since the confirmation of the Oreshnik missile’s combat trial deployment, various media outlets and experts have been analyzing its characteristics in an effort to learn more about its capabilities. Based on viral images of the incident, it can be determined that the missile was equipped with a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) configuration.
However, beyond the payload configuration—whether MIRV, hypersonic glide vehicles, or highly maneuverable warheads—ballistic missiles generally achieve hypersonic speeds, making interception extremely challenging and raising numerous questions for the future.
First, in the event that Ukraine employs Western-supplied weaponry against targets inside or outside Russian territory again, will the Kremlin respond with another demonstration of ballistic missile strike capabilities like the one seen today?
Second, given this escalation, will the Ukrainian government request Washington to supply a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system? It is likely that the U.S. would refuse, given the limited number and complexity of these systems. It is worth noting that the U.S. has deployed various THAAD systems in strategic locations or to support allies, as recently demonstrated by the deployment of such a system to Israel.
Finally, with the potential use of more Oreshnik missiles, additional details about the system may emerge through the recovery of scattered components and debris, which could confirm that it is based on the RS-26. This missile itself draws from the design of earlier ballistic missiles like the RS-24, albeit in a smaller form factor.
Cover photo used for illustrative purposes: RS-26.
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