The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria yesterday, with the capture of Damascus by rebel forces led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is triggering a rapid reconfiguration of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. While the future awaiting the Syrian people remains unclear, the potential impact of this new reconfiguration on several actors involved in the civil war that has dominated the country’s life for the past decade can already be assessed.
One such actor is Russia, which, along with Iran and its proxies, has been one of the main supporters of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. A significant reason for this support lies in the major naval and air installations that the Russian Armed Forces operate in the country. These facilities enable the projection of various assets in the region, which now face an uncertain future amid rapidly unfolding events.
Before conducting any analysis, it is crucial to recall Russia’s historic pursuit, from the time of the Tsars through the Soviet Union and into the present day, of access to warm-water ports. This objective is rooted in geography, as the country lacks natural harbors that permit year-round operations with access to major oceans. This explains why the Russian Federation maintains the Kaliningrad enclave in Europe and, in Syria’s case, the Tartus Naval Base, which allows for a force projection that would otherwise be impossible.
In Syria, besides the Tartus Naval Base (home to the Permanent Mediterranean Task Force), the Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia also stands out. These facilities, taken together, played a crucial role at the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, serving as a primary logistical hub for the Russian Armed Forces. Additionally, in the confrontation and rivalry with NATO, these bases provide strategic projection capabilities for submarines, warships, and various types of aircraft into the Eastern Mediterranean, North Africa, and NATO’s southern flank.
For instance, recent naval exercises conducted by the Russian Navy in the Eastern Mediterranean, which included missile launches from frigates, submarines, and coastal batteries, would not have been possible without the support and facilities offered by the Tartus Naval Base. The exercise also featured MiG-31I aircraft equipped with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, although it remains unclear if they were deployed from the Khmeimim Air Base.
Given the above, the Kremlin faces a precarious situation regarding its ability to maintain these installations amidst the regime change underway in Syria. While there is currently no evidence that the rebel forces who captured Damascus yesterday are advancing toward the Tartus Naval Base or the Khmeimim Air Base, satellite images from the latter suggest movements indicative of an impending evacuation. This is supported by the arrival of strategic transport aircraft IL-76s and AN-124s, which could begin evacuating personnel in a worst-case scenario, as well as the departure of various ships from Tartus.
One of the latest reports, dating to earlier this month, noted that Syrian rebels were positioning forces just twenty miles from the airbase. These reports surfaced before Damascus fell to HTS and the triumphant entry of its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, into the capital.
As for the Tartus Naval Base, situated farther from the fighting, doubts are also growing about the future of the facilities and the potential impact that a possible evacuation might have on Russia’s presence in the region. It is also necessary to consider the Russian Armed Forces’ capacity to reinforce and respond militarily to rebel attacks, especially given the toll nearly three years of conflict in Ukraine have taken on Russia’s military apparatus.
Regardless of the Russian Armed Forces’ capabilities to preserve their presence in these critical installations, it is likely that the Kremlin will attempt some form of outreach to Syrian rebels to negotiate a compromise. In the best-case scenario, this would buy time to determine the future of Russia’s presence in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East over the coming years, or even decades. Conversely, in the worst-case scenario, history offers numerous examples of disorganized withdrawals by major geopolitical actors in the face of events like those currently unfolding in Syria.
*Photographs used for illustrative purposes.
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