NATO intelligence reports indicate that a Russian attack on Finland, Norway, and the Baltic states would require the deployment of more than 600,000 Russian Armed Forces troops, a potential action envisioned as a triple offensive. Despite the losses and outcomes in Ukraine, Moscow has maintained and updated its plans for a possible multi-front offensive.
According to the Finnish portal Iltalehti and details disclosed by NATO intelligence sources, “…NATO’s main concern is not whether Russia will attack, but when and where it might test NATO’s Article 5 commitment to collective defense….”
Various NATO actors agree on the direct threat Russia poses to the region, with predictions of a potential Russian offensive in the Baltic region within the coming years. A notable concern has been a series of recent incidents involving damage to critical infrastructure, amid strong suspicions of Moscow’s and Beijing’s involvement.
Finland has warned in a defense policy report that any Russian aggression would likely include ballistic and cruise missile strikes against civilian targets, following the pattern seen in Ukraine, where Russia launched attacks on critical infrastructure and population centers to achieve political objectives. “…Large-scale, long-term, and high-intensity warfare has returned to Europe…,” the report states.
Russian attack plan
The Russian attack would unfold as a simultaneous offensive involving various units of its Armed Forces. According to Iltalehti, in the north, “…the 14th Army Corps would attack Norway’s coast from Murmansk by sea, land, and air. The Russians would deploy their landing forces to Finnish Lapland. Finland would also face attacks from Russian missile forces stationed on the Kola Peninsula. In Lapland, the Russians would, for example, aim to quickly seize Ivalo Airport….”
One of Moscow’s objectives would be to create a buffer zone in northern Lapland and Finnmark in Norway, thus bringing the fighting into NATO territory. “…Further south, Russian missile forces would target Finland’s southern coast and southeastern Finland. The Russian 44th Army Corps would be responsible for the attack…,” Iltalehti adds.
This offensive would not aim for a full-scale campaign deep into Finland but would focus on seizing the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland and southeastern Finland. “…This would immobilize Finland’s main Defense Forces and hinder support for Estonia’s defense from Finland…,” the report states.
According to NATO sources, the Russian 6th Army would attempt to advance into Estonia and Latvia with a massive attack using tanks, artillery, and missiles, aiming to capture the capitals of Tallinn and Riga. Lithuania would also be a target, attacked via Belarus. “The goal would be to secure a land connection between Russia’s Kaliningrad and Belarus, i.e., capturing the so-called Suwalki Corridor. If successful, NATO forces fighting in the Baltic states would risk being geographically trapped.”
“…It’s not a matter of if Russia attacks but when they attempt it. They will surely try to surprise us. Surprise is part of Russia’s strategic culture,” said NATO sources.
Illustrative cover image. Credits: Russian MinDef
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