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Mensaje: <blockquote data-quote="ARGENTVS" data-source="post: 3317773" data-attributes="member: 93">[URL unfurl="true"]https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/analysis-of-kofman-lees-urgent-new?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxNDA4MjM3NTksInBvc3RfaWQiOjEyMTY3Nzg3MywiaWF0IjoxNjg0MjgwMjk2LCJleHAiOjE2ODY4NzIyOTYsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0xMzUxMjc0Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.nhE3CfrzGPTe8FAtvxNSnPYNhiAdpzJmv2ZbQ_axBQc&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email[/URL]<h3>Analyzing Kofman-Lee's Urgent New Op-Ed</h3><a href="https://substack.com/profile/125744148-simplicius-the-thinker"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_80,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc11daf9d-fa1e-47bc-8871-e65ecbc6f40d_257x255.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substack.com/@simplicius76">SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER</a>16 MAY 2023Several days ago, <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-war-beyond-ukraines-offensive">an article co-authored by the two</a><a href="https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/analysis-of-kofman-lees-urgent-new?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#footnote-1-121677873">1</a>crown princes of pro-Ukrainian military bad-takes, the preeminent Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, was published by Foreign Affairs. It seemed too good an opportunity to pass up in getting a look under the hood of the current narrative from the two chief propagandists themselves, and what was deemed so important as to warrant an urgent Foreign Affairs frontage.Typically, when military or political ‘figures’ are ceded the floor to such a platform, it’s to make an urgent appeal for solidarity, a sort of think-tank-accelerated declaration to the world of their NATO devotees. And that’s what they’ve done; together, Kofman and Lee have rung alarm bills for the Western world to heed their words regarding the shifting outlook of the SMO and where things are headed.<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdef90c43-cb59-483a-a822-cc08c909a9c2_998x258.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdef90c43-cb59-483a-a822-cc08c909a9c2_998x258.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdef90c43-cb59-483a-a822-cc08c909a9c2_998x258.png"></a>The slant of their article converges with a theme now sweeping over Europe and the entire Ukrainian-supporting Western structure. It is that slow-gnawing realization that has been dawning on these Euro-apparatchiks like a cold sweat over the past several weeks: that Ukraine’s coming offensives will not prove decisive in any way; that Ukraine has no real chance in the present or short-term future. That the only way to move forward without sustaining an historically humiliating loss is to ‘kick the can down the road’ and focus on building a pro-war coalition for the future, one that can hope to match Russia’s long term military-economic sustainment potential.And this is the general arc of Kofman-Lee’s desperate plea here. Couched in carefully mindful tones—so as not to cause too much panic or alarm amongst their decidedly fragile NAFO supporters—Kofman-Lee slowly build the case for why any sort of dramatic or decisive success should not be expected, and why instead the narrative needs to shift towards building long term sustainment infrastructure for Ukraine to be able to fight what is now likely to be a very long, drawn out conflict.I’ve highlighted several times in recent articles how the narrative is beginning to swing towards this direction. Everywhere you look you’ll see Eurocrats and techno-fascist nomenklatura of the various Western states now conditioning their publics for accepting the inevitable indecisiveness of the coming offensive. We see this most of all in recent headlines urging for a focus on the future infrastructural buildup and sustainability of the war effort:<img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_720,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3df39e74-929f-43ab-84c9-d28cb20547ff_833x892.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_720,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b336bc6-4e58-4b28-ae47-7627784ae267_909x961.jpeg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /><a href="https://twitter.com/snekotron/status/1658171215045877767">This Twitter thread by Dr. Snekotron</a> highlights the problems.He states that the U.S. will never truly ‘run out of money’ for supporting Ukraine, but…there are some important nuances:The vast majority of support thus far has been from Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which is basically the U.S. sending Ukraine weapons from its own stock, rather than building new ones:<img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_720,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2f679b71-d9c3-4f9d-b75e-f0934a1138f1_346x360.jpeg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_720,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4d5c430b-b51a-45b0-9cb2-5ff86ec4fab7_342x360.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />He references the fact that there are no real substantial increases in production happening because actual production increase is extremely difficult, particularly in the currently volatile economic/market climate. So, Snekotron concludes that though U.S. may have ‘unlimited money’ in a sense, there will still be a major constraint in supplies to UA for the foreseeable future.Western nations have given Ukraine a new lease on life by rebuilding its army from scratch at the cost of their own limited stockpiles. But now that those are drawn down and dried up, the path towards magically restructuring their limping economies into chuffing industrial powerhouses looks quite tenuous.The dastardly disinfo duo appear to be making the case that, European leaders have merely splurged on their arms deliveries in the hopes of ‘washing their hands’, or giving the appearance of having helped to check off a box so as not to be ostracized, with the view that the coming offensive will settle everything and they won’t have to deal with the problem anymore. However, Kofman-Lee caution that this offensive will likely not create any incentive for ‘Putin to stop’ the war:Next, they ironically give Russia credit for having done exactly what they were supposed to do, the smart strategic maneuvers—which is in stark contradiction to what either one of them were saying at the time in public. Here they write that Russia’s orderly and ‘successful’ withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson allowed them to shorten their lines and concentrate manpower in a far more conducive way, which was obviously the point.They go on to claim that Russia’s ‘winter offensives’ were a failure, but could only really list Ugledar as an example, once more reaching into the favored propaganda toolbag to claim that the Marines there received ‘thousands of casualties’ despite the fact that official casualty trackers registered very minimal losses during the entire period of the assault (low hundreds), and that the false narrative surrounding the Ugledar attacks hinged exclusively on a set of two or three short, misleadingly edited videos showing minor mishaps at the platoon level or lower.When they turn to Bakhmut, they make a strange and nonsensical statement:So, taking Bakhmut by encircling it would have been ‘significant’ yet taking the city “itself” is a downgrade? Why exactly? I suppose their failed argument would be: “Well, because by encircling the city, you could have trapped a large number of troops and destroyed them.” But what’s the difference? When Ukraine continued to pour in far more troops than they ever imagined having to utilize, the slow grind method actually resulted in far more losses to the AFU than even an ‘encirclement’ would have produced.At any given time, the city only had maybe 20-30k troops inside of it at once, with more on the outskirts and outlying exurbs. By ‘encircling it’, Wagner could have potentially destroyed 15-25k, but instead, as Prigozhin has explained, they inflicted upwards of 50-60k casualties on the AFU, which was forced to stem an unending flow of losses by sending cannonfodder reinforcements, cheap throwaway ‘territorial defense’, over and over to the point where it had begun to shock even their Western supporters. During the worst of it, <a href="https://www.bitchute.com/video/dbEhQRPFN8wA/">they admitted on Western television</a> that the lifespan of a ‘meat’ soldier on the frontline of Bakhmut was around four hours or less. And several times, <a href="https://www.bitchute.com/video/WFZMB0E15Yl7/">AFU officers admitted</a> that their losses were typically two companies per day (400-500 troops).<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b90a6a1-ae98-4200-a403-c06a6a1b01f4_960x180.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b90a6a1-ae98-4200-a403-c06a6a1b01f4_960x180.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b90a6a1-ae98-4200-a403-c06a6a1b01f4_960x180.png"></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd001f526-eb4f-4f2b-a7ee-325c7bba1f78_791x288.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd001f526-eb4f-4f2b-a7ee-325c7bba1f78_791x288.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd001f526-eb4f-4f2b-a7ee-325c7bba1f78_791x288.png"></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf0caafa-37d3-457b-8692-ed0e0b6f14e4_742x186.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf0caafa-37d3-457b-8692-ed0e0b6f14e4_742x186.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faf0caafa-37d3-457b-8692-ed0e0b6f14e4_742x186.png"></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25efc0dd-29fe-468a-9bcf-bedc614e7e51_1280x243.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25efc0dd-29fe-468a-9bcf-bedc614e7e51_1280x243.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25efc0dd-29fe-468a-9bcf-bedc614e7e51_1280x243.png"></a>In fact, just today a new report from a Western officer providing cover in Bakhmut said the following about Ukraine’s recent heroic ‘offensive’ attempts to unblock Bakhmut:<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa93d23c6-4192-46ea-b233-d188d04722ac_1071x737.jpeg"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa93d23c6-4192-46ea-b233-d188d04722ac_1071x737.jpeg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa93d23c6-4192-46ea-b233-d188d04722ac_1071x737.jpeg"></a>In short, he states that an entire regiment was annihilated just so Zelensky could have his little two minutes of gloating on Western television that some insignificantly tiny corner of Bakhmut’s flank was ‘liberated’ for a few days.Given the above, does one really think ‘encircling the city’ would have provided a more ‘significant victory’ than a six month grind fest which destroyed—as per many AFU soldiers’ own accounts—the very best of their personnel?Kofman-Lee then make the following admission:And finally, they come around to agreeing with my own view, circuitously, and actually contradicting their own earlier point about the quick encirclement of Bakhmut being a more ‘significant victory’:Suddenly here they admit that the long grind may have critically depleted the AFU in not only manpower but materiel as well, for a questionable trade off of some convicts. Also, they’re implicitly agreeing with Prigozhin’s own stated take on the purpose of Bakhmut, which was to give Russian forces time to mobilize and train after September of last year when the mobilization was first announced.Sure, Kofman-Lee. An obvious attempt to dissemble and cover their loss.The next section is forward-looking. They attempt to evaluate UA’s chances in the coming offensives. Their opening statement does not give one confidence:Well, I’d say. This chart is a grim look on just how many of those officers Ukraine has lost.<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda155957-332b-4817-957b-1cce0756f2e3_1024x763.jpeg"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda155957-332b-4817-957b-1cce0756f2e3_1024x763.jpeg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda155957-332b-4817-957b-1cce0756f2e3_1024x763.jpeg"></a>Then comes a huge, if not comical, admission:<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2115bb26-aa91-48d0-a307-727dddc6235f_588x708.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2115bb26-aa91-48d0-a307-727dddc6235f_588x708.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2115bb26-aa91-48d0-a307-727dddc6235f_588x708.png"></a>So: Ukraine was taught in “the NATO way”, BUT…apparently NATO is actually incapable of fighting without air superiority. Woops! Seems like that’s something which should’ve been noted up front to the poor AFU lab rats, no? The fact is, the entire ‘NATO training’ canard was a hoax perpetrated by cynical Western rulers for nearly a decade now. It’s been widely noted from the early parts of the Donbass war, 2014 and onward, by AFU soldiers themselves, that NATO trainers in fact were inferior to the Ukrainian troops they purported to be training. The reason is: their ‘knowledge’ is merely theoretical, and what one quickly learns on the battlefield is that nothing is comparable to the real life, firsthand experience of a blooded warrior, who has actually seen combat, not in the stuffy pages of a textbook, but in the grueling chaos of the trenches themselves.<a href="https://www.unz.com/tsaker/the-saker-interviews-dmitry-orlov/">This Saker interview</a> with Dmitry Orlov for instance highlighted the fact:<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa537413d-4296-4c2e-8dfd-7cfa0eead745_795x293.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa537413d-4296-4c2e-8dfd-7cfa0eead745_795x293.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa537413d-4296-4c2e-8dfd-7cfa0eead745_795x293.png"></a>And <a href="https://sputnikglobe.com/20170326/ukraine-nato-instructors-criticism-1051978949.html">this 2017 article</a>:<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F031ee062-f2ed-4778-a0c8-11cb63934f05_768x206.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F031ee062-f2ed-4778-a0c8-11cb63934f05_768x206.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F031ee062-f2ed-4778-a0c8-11cb63934f05_768x206.png"></a>Which highlighted how NATO instructors were training Ukrainian fighters on weapon systems the instructors themselves had no clue how to load or handle. Photos showed NATO instructors incorrectly teaching AFU how to load DShK machineguns, not to mention with incorrect ammo types.But back to Kofman-Lee:Next, they discuss something which I wrote about in a recent report:Mencioné cómo una 'filtración' pretendía que a Ucrania se le asignó aproximadamente un suministro de municiones para 10-14 días para cualquier próxima ofensiva. Recuerda que una ofensiva es un período de 'alta intensidad' acelerado en el que normalmente disparas muchas más municiones que las fases posicionales normales de baja intensidad, como gran parte de la fase actual. Entonces, si Ucrania actualmente está disparando entre 2 y 6 mil proyectiles por día, pueden estar destinados a disparar más de 20 mil por día durante la ofensiva. Lo que significa que durante un período hipotético de 14 días, pueden tener algo así como ~300k proyectiles preparados y almacenados.Kofman-Lee aquí están reconociendo este hecho: que la ofensiva será una 'ventana' limitada de alto sostenimiento, durante la cual es poco probable que Ucrania logre grandes avances decisivos.Aquí reconocen que después de que la AFU gaste su carga durante la próxima 'ofensiva', debido a la 'miopía' de los objetivos de suministro de los socios occidentales, es muy posible que Ucrania se quede con una asignación mucho menor de la que ha tenido en el pasado medio año más o menos. En resumen, la situación de sostenimiento de Ucrania para la segunda mitad de 2023 puede parecer evidentemente grave  .En otra admisión reveladora, Kofman-Lee observa cómo el enfoque en las wunderwaffen "que cambian el juego" no ha llevado a nada más que a la decepción, ya que ningún sistema es lo suficientemente poderoso como para ganar una guerra por completo. La parte triste es que cualquier estratega militar competente podría haberte dicho eso incluso mucho  antes de la guerra, pero fueron los payasos pro-occidentales quienes insistieron en engañarse a sí mismos con fantasías tan groseras.Después de hacerlo tan bien durante la extensión del artículo, realizando realidades y reconocimientos absolutamente honestos por primera vez en sus carreras de estafadores, terminan con una nota típicamente fuera de tono. Es comprensible, por supuesto, que después de presentar una imagen tan pesimista a sus seguidores tontos y lanudos, se sintieran inclinados a lanzarles un estimulante caritativo, para no matar sus esperanzas por completo.Así que peroran con este engañoso texto estándar al nivel de CNN:Curioso que mencionen eso. Justo ayer, el viceprimer ministro ruso y ministro de comercio e industria, Denis Manturov, informó las siguientes actualizaciones:<ol> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Se produjeron más tanques en el primer trimestre de 2023 que en todo 2022.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">Hay 7 veces más armas disparadas que en 2022.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ol">El volumen total de producción militar aumentará 4 veces en 2023.</li> </ol>This is in addition to the <a href="https://www.bitchute.com/video/FDxevsSRKSoV/">previously reported figures</a> from Rostec CEO Chemezov that Russia has produced 300+ helicopters in the first few months of this year, compared to ~150 for all of last year.Extrapolating, Russia had previously manufactured upwards of 150-250 tanks per year, with Medvedev promising to upscale this to 1600+. Though this number includes refurbished and upgraded tanks, which actually make up the bulk, it’s still indicative of vast industrial outputs. Manturov’s new figures shed some light on this. It’s unclear if he’s referring to only newly manufactured, or the total which includes refurbs and upgrades as well, but it certainly points to a colossal number that is likely well beyond anything such small-minded incompetents as Kofman-Lee are capable of acknowledging.The fact of the matter is, the ‘West’, powered by the propaganda churning mill of inept ‘analysts’ like the above, will be in for a massive shock and rude awakening when they begin to see the effects of Russia’s unprecedented economic up-scaling actually percolating down to the battlefield. It remains unseen for now only because Russia continues to lie in wait, like a panther in the savannah brush, for the right opportunity to strike. But if these faulty premises are what the West chooses to continue operating under for their understanding of the battlefield dynamic, then the future will be riddled with cognitive dissonances and finger pointing the likes of which we can hardly imagine. It’s only to Ukraine and the West’s detriment that they so desperately downplay and attempt to whitewash Russia’s unprecedented industrial revitalization.I think we all know the answer to the above.Their final send off is a last urgent plea for Western powers to “think beyond” the offensive, and instead focus on supporting Ukraine to the hereafter:<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb368c671-9917-4b9d-be82-6ca93c0d8d9f_572x618.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb368c671-9917-4b9d-be82-6ca93c0d8d9f_572x618.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb368c671-9917-4b9d-be82-6ca93c0d8d9f_572x618.png"></a>How quickly things have shifted. Recall, just earlier this year, the narrative was that the coming post-Winter offensive would ‘break’ Russia, and be the final blow to end the war. Myriad MSM headlines spun us a tale of Russia on its last legs, Putin ‘on the ropes’ and a<img src="https://www.smiley-lol.com/smiley/expressifs/sablierr.gif"  class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt="waiting" title="Espera    waiting" data-shortname="waiting" /> the knockout punch. Too bad they failed to inform their audience that Putin was merely imitating Ali in Zaire, when Foreman, too, was overeager to finish off his putatively rope-slung opponent.<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F315c6164-1261-402b-b8dc-150b81ce24a4_718x233.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F315c6164-1261-402b-b8dc-150b81ce24a4_718x233.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F315c6164-1261-402b-b8dc-150b81ce24a4_718x233.png"></a>In fact, Ukrainian officials were falling over themselves to announce that the “war would be over” this summer, or even by May.<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F049e91a3-d168-433a-9814-41ae84e1f4a5_748x87.png"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F049e91a3-d168-433a-9814-41ae84e1f4a5_748x87.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a><a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F049e91a3-d168-433a-9814-41ae84e1f4a5_748x87.png"></a>“According to him, already this spring, Ukraine and Russia will face in a decisive battle, which will be the last before the end of the war. However, he did not provide any evidence for his claims.”Now, suddenly the tone is changing. The Western MICs are scrambling for ‘sustainment’ options and long term survival strategies, morale erosion mitigation measures, etc. As I said, it’s likely that many European countries are merely doing their token share to ‘wash their hands’ of the conflict, so as not to be accused of disloyalty to the Euro-Technocrat-Globalist order. In reality, that bare minimum is just good enough to give Ukraine one last hurrah of the television highlight reel, where they hope to gain a single major piece of psychological leverage over Russia for use in the ensuing negotiations. The most likely target for that can only logically be the ZNPP nuclear power plant in Energodar.Today alone, <a href="https://www.bitchute.com/video/HuL4ooOaHCpR/">Russian MOD has announced</a> the shoot down of six total Storm Shadow missiles, so that wunderwaffen many were counting on to herald a ‘game changing’ destruction of Kerch bridge from afar, has already been relegated to the same dustbin of mediocre accomplishment that the Javelin and HIMARs currently keeps warm.The only final hope that the EU/UA have is the blind prayer that Russia’s seeming inactivity and focus on Bakhmut alone for the past few months were telltale signs of worn-down inability and force exhaustion, rather than the patient buildup it clearly represents. Ukraine will fatally gamble on the notion that Russia has and will continue to “pull back” until some negotiated settlement favorable to Ukraine will ultimately be ironed out.Es una lástima que no vean el 'retroceso' por lo que realmente es:<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52bad1e7-d1ef-4bf7-a68e-1ad04da864fd_680x480.jpeg"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F52bad1e7-d1ef-4bf7-a68e-1ad04da864fd_680x480.jpeg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></a></blockquote>

Verificación: ¿Cuanto es 2 mas 6? (en letras)